होम [American Society of Civil Engineers First International Conference on Transportation Engineering -...

[American Society of Civil Engineers First International Conference on Transportation Engineering - Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu, China (July 22-24, 2007)] International Conference on Transportation Engineering 2007 - Role and Position of ETT in the Future Comprehensive Transportation System

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साल:
2007
भाषा:
english
DOI:
10.1061/40932(246)459
फ़ाइल:
PDF, 147 KB
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आप पुस्तक समीक्षा लिख सकते हैं और अपना अनुभव साझा कर सकते हैं. पढ़ूी हुई पुस्तकों के बारे में आपकी राय जानने में अन्य पाठकों को दिलचस्पी होगी. भले ही आपको किताब पसंद हो या न हो, अगर आप इसके बारे में ईमानदारी से और विस्तार से बताएँगे, तो लोग अपने लिए नई रुचिकर पुस्तकें खोज पाएँगे.
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ROLE AND POSITION OF ETT IN THE FUTURE COMPREHENSIVE
TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM*
Yaoping Zhang and Yanyan Li
Institute of Evacuated Tube Transportation, College of Traffic & Transportation,
Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China; PH: (86)28-87601189;
email:ypzhang@tubetr.com
Abstract: Construction of Evacuated Tube Transportation (ETT) line will be a
sequent evangel for human beings after trains, automobiles, airplanes and
information technologies. Especially, ETT will pull the transportation out from the
present morass radically, bringing new changes to the global economic and life style.
Thus, there are some issues to discuss right now. For example, what will be the role
and position of ETT in the future comprehensive transportation? What will be the
relationship between ETT and existing transportation styles such as the railway, the
highway and the airplane, competition, substitute or mutual supplement? This paper
respectively reviewed the situation of existing 5 transportation styles, analyzed and
reasoned above issues. According to this paper, ETT will bring some competitive
pressure on existing railway, highway and aviation industries, sharing market freight
and passenger resource. However, ETT wouldn t replace existing transportation
styles, only a makeup or replacing part functions of existing transportation styles, for
example, replacing the international express mission of aviation, and some distance
transfer function may turn to ETT from trains, cars and airplanes. In addition, the
attribute of ETT will be a combination of the railway and the tube transportation.
Key words: Evacuated Tube Transportation, Comprehensive Transportation, Marine,
Railway, Highway, Aviation, Pipeline Transport, Role
1 Introduction
Evacuated Tube Transportation (ETT)[1][2][3] will be a new transportation style
with high potential. For the hypervelocity, low energy consuming, low no; ise, no
pollution and high security, ETT is more beneficial and more promising than existing
railway, highway and airplane. From the technology view point, carrying out ETT is
much easier than spaceflight aviation and out-space exploring. And, technologies for
creating ETT have been existed at present. Construction of Evacuated Tube
Transportation line will be a sequent evangel for human beings after trains,
automobiles, airplanes and information technologies. Especially, ETT will pull the

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transportation out from the present morass radically, bringing new changes to the
global economic and life style.
Anyway, there are some issues that we have to discuss right now. For example,
what will be the role and position of ETT among the future comprehensive
transportation system? What will be the relationship between ETT and existing
transportation styles such as the railway, the highway and the airplane, being
competition, substitute or mutual supplement relationship? This paper respectively
reviewed the situation of 5 transportation modes, analyzed and reasoned above issues.
Finally, some results came out.
2 Development Situation of Existing 5 Transportation Modes
2ˊ1 On Marine
A long history was accompanied with water carriage. Watercraft was the main
means to complete the long distance transport of passengers and freight before the
application of railway, highway, aviation and pipeline transportation. Although there
are manpower and domestic animal to transfer freight inside a country or among
different countries on the mainland in the ancient, such as shouldering, jinricksha,
carriage and camel, they were not transportation tools on the modern meaning, not in
the list of 5 modern transportation modes that we are discussing.
1405~1433ˈChinese navigator Zheng He led on big scale fleets to voyage to the
west coast of the Europe from the east of China 7 times. 1492~1502ˈSpanish
navigator Columbus voyaged to east and found the America New Mainland. They
used sail boats driven by manpower.
The traffic tools that people spanned over the ocean had been the boats before
the airplane was invented in begin of the 20th century. Afterwards, airplanes replaced
steamboats gradually, becoming the main means to span oceans.
During the past 100 years, the development character of steamboats was as
following. In aspect of passenger transport, the passenger proportion became little
and little, and, the position of steamboats as a main means to go through oceans
faded away. In aspect of freight transport, as the international trade grew up
constantly, the freight amount that ocean steamboats carried also grew up
continuously. In aspect of the boat volume, steamboats became big and big.
As for the future development of marine, we must realize some phenomena as
following:
˄1˅When the boat runs in water, the water resistance is proportional with the
cube of speed.[4] Therefore, according to the technology characteristic of boat, it is
certainly the slowest, being difficult to parallel with trains, autos and airplanes.
˄2˅No matter for passenger transport or freight, the steamboat size had been
become big and big. It s a reality we had seen. And, bigger boats will be built in the
future.
˄3˅As for the freight boat, it is an argumentative topic if the bigger boat
should be built. A view point is that bigger boats, higher efficiency. Another view

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point is that, people should modestly look into the large-scale bulk-cargo boat and
container boat, because the larger the boat, the longer the freight collection time and
unload time. It is contrary to the anticipant for high speed, high efficient and just in
time of logistics.
˄4˅As for the passenger boat, its function as the travel means had retreated
from the history stage. However, the function as the wandering boat had shown the
unique fascination. It means that the boat as the place for entertainment, making
holiday and business room on sea, should be created with larger volume, setting
grand guest room, meeting room, amusement hall, dinning hall, theater, natatorium
and playground. It is also reasonable to build a boat like a community or a city.
2ˊ2 On Railway Transport
Railway is a transport method fitting to transport a large amount of freight and a
large number of passengers in a long distance.
  In the latter half of the 19th century, Europe and America entered into Railway
Age . America constructed 5 transcontinental railway lines, constituted the vertically
and horizontally railway meshwork, which was the important power to drive
American economic. Since begin of the 20th century, China never stopped her steps
to construct railway. There was some slang such as Railway No. 1, T rain Loud,
Gold Millions from 50s to 70s of the 20th century, which indicated that railway is
the most prominent symbol in China, standing on the first position among all
industries. After 80s of the 20th century, as the highway and aviation transport
developed rapidly, railway lost the position as Railway No. 1.
As for the development of railway, some analysis is as following:
˄1˅The railway comes through such a kind of history: Silver AgeėVWDJQDQF\
ėSilver Age. Nowadays, high-speed railway plans and Maglev plans have been
constituted in many countries, meaning that the railway is going into a new Silver
Age. The following picture (Figure 1) shows the foretime, nowadays and future of
the railway.
Diesel Locomotive

Steam Locomotive

Past

Electric Locomotive

Maglev

Nowadays

<120km/h

120~350km/h

ETT

Future
350~500km/h

500~20000km/h

Figure 1. Foretime, Nowadays and Future of the Railway
˄2˅When the ETT is put into use, most of passenger trains will not be charged
with transporting people who are engaged in official affairs or business. The
passenger train will be a good touring tool. People in trains with the speed
100~500km/h could trip to everywhere that they want to go, looking around beautiful
natural sights. A fact that passenger steamboat as the early primary traffic tool for
transporting have been changed to the pleasure ground on sea, declares publicly the

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direction that the passenger train will go to in the future. And, another fact that the
newly constructed Qinghai-Tibet railway is pitched as the touring line, carriages
equipped by the standard of the luxury junketing car, is a sample and outset of that
judgment.
˄3˅As for railway freight, it will be the primary method for long distance
freight on mainland before ETT is put into use. As more tube lines for oil, gas, coal
and ore, etc., are constructed, as well as ETT attracts some pieces and grocery freight
that is expected to be transported very fast, the proportion of the railway freight will
be reduced gradually. Then the primary mission of railway is to transport large-scale
and heavy equipments, because those equipments are not fit to be transported by ETT
or pipeline with a small diameter. Even if SwissMetro[5] or AmericanMetro[6] with a
large tube diameter such as 5 meter or more, we must see that the Maglev is not fit to
transporting very heavy equipments.
2ˊ3 On Highway Transport
In the latter half of the 20th century, America said good-bye to her Railway
Age, going to her Auto Age, and called A Country on Car Wheels. At the same
time, auto became the most important thing that affects the social economic and life
in Europe and some other developed countries. Afterwards, especially in the past 20
years, highway mileage and auto s yearly transport volume have exceeded the
railway in some developing countries like China.
As for the development of highway, we can discuss in some aspects as
following:
˄1˅The auto is a flexible and convenient transport tool, with a good flexibility.
It s inconceivable for military affairs and other economic fields if no autos. It s
impossible that the function of the auto is replaced by other transport tool in the
future comprehensive transportation system. However, it does not mean that the
proportion of the highway transport will increase ceaselessly. It s anticipatory that
the proportion of the highway transport volume will go down, as the pipeline
logistics and ETT are used widely. One reason is that a lot of cargos could be
transported by the capsule pipeline [7] or ETT at a low cost except the short distance
transfer, special and dangerous goods. Another reason is that in the situation with
troppo autos in most of countries all over the world, the road traffic is becoming
crowed and crowed, the highway establishments bear over charges, and this morass
couldn t be radically solved by building more new roads.
˄2˅Highway transportation is the primary consumer of the oil, however, the
situation of the oil resource lack is serious and serious. The oil supply will certainly
become tensional, even if the oil consuming of autos is kept on the present level.
Although electric, hydrogen fuel and solar energy vehicles are being developed or
made, the practical application effect of those vehicles might not be ideal. And, those
new vehicles are not able to solve the problem on road jams.
˄3˅Automobile casualty has become another type of wars we have to face to

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everyday. In fact, the number of people killed by automobiles might exceed the
number of people killed by some wars. In recent years, more than 100,000 people
were killed each year in traffic accidents in China. According to the public data by
Chinese authority, more than 12,000 people were killed in auto traffic accidents in
2005. By estimate, the number of wounded people is more than 10 times of death
people in traffic accidents. It s a pity that commenter always criticize drivers, road
status and administrative departments, overlooking an indeed reason of traffic
accidents----the comparatively disorder of the highway traffic and the uncertainty of
human as an operator. When we realized this deep reason, we could put forward a
logical suggestion on the development of highway transportation: transfer part of
highway transportation tasks to railway and tube transport.
˄4˅Based on above 3 view points, we can sketch a blueprint for the role and
position of autos in the future comprehensive transportation system: Auto will be a
good tool to sport, play and entertainment for people, not as a traffic method that we
have to rely on, especially in long distance trip or freight. At that time, more than
50% of autos in the highway are for playing and entertainment, and the number of
running vehicles in the highway will be much less than the number of present
vehicles in the highway.
2ˊ4 On Aviation Transport
The history of aviation transportation is about 100 years. In the past 100 years,
the proportion of freight and passenger transport in the comprehensive transportation
system was going up continuously, so the transport volume too. In a long term in the
future, for example, 30 or 50 years, aviation transport industry will continue to go up.
Anyway, as the evacuated tube transportation is put into use widely, such going-up
trend of aviation transport will stop, and the character of the aviation transport will
change structurally.
As for the development of the aviation transport, we could analysis in some
aspects as following:
˄1˅Airplane is a transport tool with high flexibility which other transport
modes couldn t provide. It could span almost any barrier on the land. Even if ETT
could be built on the seabed, the flexibility of ETT couldn t be mentioned in the
same breath with the airplane. Therefore, the important role of the aviation transport
among 5 transportation styles wouldn t be changed in any case.
˄2˅Airplane is a transport tool to consume a large amount of oil. As the short
of the oil supply becomes serious and serious, the cost of the aviation transport will
go up constantly. Then, a large part of the long-distant passenger transport and freight
mission borne by the aviation industry would turn around ETT which is low cost and
faster.
˄3˅In order to increase the transport efficiency, we see a trend that more and
more airplanes with a large size have been made. For example, Airbus A380-800
with 555 seats and A380-800F freighter version with150 tone payload.[8] However,

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this trend is incompatible with the request for super-speed logistics and
transportation in the future. Just like the case of containers with large size,
large-scale bulk cargo vessels and long-large trains, large size means to prolong
waiting time, boarding time and distributing time. It s satiric that the waiting and
boarding time is often more than the flight time in the air when we travel by the
airplane today. Thus, researchers and experts on the transportation field should be
cautious to the large-scale trend of the airplane. We should realize that the anticipant
transport mode is to depart at once without any waiting, just like taking on a taxi. In
fact, it s possible that ETT would be more convenient than the taxi, having ETT
vehicles wait for passengers in any time. Even a passenger could leave for his
destination at once after boarding on ETT vehicle without waiting.
˄4˅Now that airplane shouldn t become larger and larger, we can sketch a
blueprint for the airplane development in the future when ETT era comes out: Based
on the high flexibility of airplanes, they will also be important in military affairs; in
the aspect of civil affairs, developing small airplanes, helicopters and private
airplanes is the right direction. The function of small airplanes is similar to the
function of cars, mainly existing as a tool for people s sports, touring and
entertainment.
2ˊ5 On Pipeline Transport
Like the case of airplanes, both the proportion and the transport volume of the
pipeline transport among 5 transport styles have been increasing since 60s of the 19th.
It s creditable that the tube or pipeline transport is the most potential mode in the
future among 5 transport styles, and it will be the high-rank transport style. From
today, we should clear up a misapprehend on the pipeline transport, namely the
pipeline transport is a transport mode only for liquid, gas and granule cargo. We
should see other two important development directions of pipeline transport: capsule
pipeline logistics and ETT. Of course, we can put cargo capsules in a vacuum tube,
namely ETT logistics.
As for the pipeline transport, we can realize it by following aspects:
˄1˅This paper put forward that Pipeline Transport is The High-rank Transport
Style. Such a saying is based on a logical reasoning that things certainly go to order
from disorder. So do traffic and transportation certainly. Figure 2 shows such a
development rule.
Wold
Disorder

Highway
Order Somewhat

Railway
Order

RailwayˇTube
High Order

Figure 2. The Traffic and Transportation Development from Disorder to Order
˄2˅Pipeline transport will go into its high-rank stage when ETT and capsule
pipeline logistics are used widely. At that time, a majority of the passenger transport

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and freight volume borne by vessels, autos, trains and airplanes, could be charged
with pipeline or tube transport at a faster speed, more efficiency, less energy
consuming, less noise and less pollution, at the same time, better security.
3 Position of ETT in The Future Comprehensive Transportation System
3ˊ1 ETT is The Combination of The Railway and The Pipeline Transport
The principal part of ETT is Maglev. Maglev vehicle runs on the railway,
despite it doesn t contact with the railway. Thus, we can say Maglev is the high-rank
style of the railway. Accordingly, ETT could be deemed to be the high-rank style of
the railway and the high class stage of the railway development. Therefore, ETT is
also another form of the railway actually.
At the same time, ETT is also the high-rank form of the pipeline transport,
namely putting Maglev into the tube, belonging to the category of the pipeline
transport. Therefore, ETT is the combination of the railway and the pipeline transport,
integrated advantages of two transport modes.
3ˊ2 ETT Is The Supplement for Existing 5 Transportation Styles
As mentioned the above, no matter in high-speed, low cost, low pollution or
security, ETT has more advantages than existing transportation modes. However, we
should see that ETT also has some disadvantages, for example, the flexibility not so
good as the airplane and the car, not able to transfer big things and heavy equipments
as steamboats and trains could, passengers couldn t enjoy the beautiful natural scene
like in boats, trains, airplanes and autos. Therefore, while ETT would vie with
existing transport styles for passengers and goods, it wouldn t replace any existing
transport style. ETT is only the supplement for existing transport styles or only the
extending in functions.
3ˊ3 Market Share of ETT in The Future Comprehensive Transportation
System
By the above analysisˈthe share of passengers and freight borne by steamboats,
trains, autos and airplanes would partially turn around ETT. This paper conceives
that the first ETT line would be finished by 2020; ETT technologies would become
matured and ETT lines would be built widely all over the world by 2030; ETT would
be widely put into use by 2050. Here another hypothesis is that the half of the
passengers and freight borne respectively by the steamboat, the train, the auto and the
plane would turn around ETT. Then, a logical deduction is that the volume or the
turnover volume of passengers and freight borne by ETT would be more than that
borne by any other transport style.
In the far future, for example, by 2100, when the primary function of trains,
autos and airplanes turn around sports, entertainment and junketing, ETT will bear a
large part of the transport mission for passengers and cargos in the comprehensive
transportation system.

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4 Conclusion
ETT would compete with existing railway, highway and aviation, sharing much
market resource of passengers and cargos. ETT would be the supplement for existing
transport styles, not replacing anyone among marine, railway, highway and aviation,
while ETT might replace some functions of existing transport styles, such as the
express mission borne by the aviation, as well as the long-distance traveling borne by
the airplane, the railway and the auto.
The railway has some advantages such as the spacious carriages, and not so
high-speed while touring for enjoying the scene, so that it fits to large-scale cargos in
freight and fits to be the tools for entertainment and enjoying the sights in the
passenger transport. Highway is able to go through any place you wish, and the auto
is high flexible, so they will be fit to logistics distribution, city traffic, short-distance
trip, family touring and self-driving traveling. Especially, the car is a good tool for
sports and entertainment. It isn t certainly for an airplane to follow a fixed line. An
airplane is able to span any landform and barrier on the ground, thus it will be fit to
special delivering mission and travel which requests the high flexibility. At that time,
the large civil airplane will lost its market and value, then small airplane and private
airplane with high flexibility will be the main mode for the traffic in the air. In
addition, like autos, besides the military purpose and some special missions,
airplanes will also be good tools for sports and entertainments.
References
[1] http://www.et3.com, Et3.com Inc. Florida, America.
[2] ZHANG Yaoping, Daryl Oster, A New Industrial Era Coming: Initial Dialogue on
Evacuated Tube Transportation (ETT), Publishing House of Tsinghua University,
China, Sep. 2004.
[3]ZHANG Yaoping, YU Xiaodong, On the Safety of Evacuated Tube Transportation,
Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, Vo.4, 2006(3), Chengdu,
China.
[4]SHEN Zhiyun, DENG Xuejun, Transportation Engineering, China
Communications Press, Vol. 2, Sep. 2003.
[5] http://www.swissmetro.com, SwissMetro.
[6] Brad Swartzwelter, Faster Then Jets: A Solution to America s Long-term
Transportation Problem, Alder Press-Kingston, Washington, 2003.
[7] Henry Liu, Capsule pipeline: An overview, ISUFT 2000, 28-29 September 2000,
Delft, Netherlands.
[8] http://www.airbusa380.info, First for Flight.

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